Science Journal of Economics Volume 2013 (2013), December 2013

Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research Article


Exploration of sources of Tunisian inflation rate fluctuations

Author: Olfa Manai Daboussi and Asma Madouri

Higher Institute of Management University of Tunis

Accepted 27 November 2013; Available Online 30 December 2013

DOI: 10.7237/sje/111


By using a Structural Vector Autoregression model, we study the effects of terms of trade, supply, fiscal, balance of payments and monetary shocks on the Tunisian quarterly inflation rate for the period 1987:Q3 to 2012:Q4. Empirical results highlight the dominance of monetary shocks. Supply shocks significantly affect the inflation rate while terms of trade, budget deficits and balance of payments shocks have a little contribution. Such results may be useful when deciding to manage Tunisian inflation rate.

Keyword:Inflation, SVAR model, Tunisian economy.